THE BLACK SEA SECURITY DILEMMA: ESCALATION RISKS IN A FRAGMENTED STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

Russia’s war against Ukraine, now in its fourth year, threatens not only Ukraine but the whole Euro-Atlantic security. The Black Sea region is exposed to a wide range of risks and threats which, combined with weak regional cooperation, EU and NATO’s shortfalls in the area create possibilities for escalation. The dynamics in the development of the transatlantic relations lead toward greater uncertainty. The Black Sea is no longer a peripheral theatre but a strategic testing ground where hybrid pressure, alliance cohesion, and nuclear deterrence intersect.