The Sea: The New Arena for Hybrid Threats
The Sofia Security Forum is part of an international research consortium focused on the protection of critical infrastructure, funded by NATO’s Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme. As part of the project, an international team of security experts, including Dr. Ivo Tsekov, Senior Analyst at the Sofia Security Forum, visited NATO’s Centre of Excellence for Operations in Confined and Shallow Waters (COE CSW), located in the German city of Kiel on the Baltic Sea. The Centre is a NATO-accredited international military organization that supports the Alliance’s transformation and maritime readiness in coastal and confined waters. This geographical scope includes two of the most dynamic regions on NATO’s northern and eastern flanks: the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. The host of the meeting and Director of the Centre, Captain Christoph Mecke, highlighted the growing importance of Europe’s peripheral "small" seas, where competing geopolitical interests intersect. According to him, an increasing number of malicious activities are taking place within the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of NATO member states, representing one of the manifestations of a new generation of hybrid threats at sea. Captain Mecke emphasized the need to collect the broadest possible range of intelligence and information, from the seabed to satellites in low Earth orbit, to enable states to protect their coastlines effectively and accurately identify the origins of threats. This is particularly important given the challenge of attribution — tracing an attack back to its original source and perpetrator amid uncertainty and operations conducted in the grey zone between war and peace. The Centre actively employs advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence and simulation-based wargaming software, to recreate potential scenarios of hostile attacks. The concepts and findings developed through these exercises serve as valuable tools for military doctrine developers. Ultimately, doctrine determines how the Alliance’s armed forces operate and employ maritime power and naval assets. "If a strategy does not work in a simulation, it is highly likely that it will not work in a real-world situation either," Captain Mecke stated, emphasizing the importance of simulation exercises. "Losing a wargame is actually a learning experience. The word 'failure' is not accurate because such an outcome demonstrates that a particular course of action is not a good idea and that a different approach should be explored next time." At the conclusion of the meeting, Captain Mecke extended an invitation to the Republic of Bulgaria to join the Centre’s activities. During the same working visit, the team of experts also travelled to Bremerhaven on the North Sea, where they visited the German Aerospace Center (DLR), Germany’s national research centre for aeronautics and space. There, they were introduced to the institute’s latest technological developments, presented by Dr. Lucia Hofer, a specialist in hybrid threats and cyber infrastructure. Particular emphasis was placed on counter-drone systems, as drones have overtaken naval mines as the primary threat to maritime infrastructure, military equipment, and human life at sea. Dr. Hofer explained that highly effective counter-drone systems already exist and are capable of disabling unmanned aerial vehicles. However, a major challenge remains: minimizing the risk of falling debris damaging buildings and facilities or injuring people after a drone has been neutralized. To address this challenge, the Centre is actively developing electronic warfare techniques designed to disrupt drones in flight or redirect them, rather than destroying them with kinetic weapons. The role of the private sector was also discussed, given that the majority of critical maritime infrastructure is privately owned. However, many companies remain reluctant to cooperate with government authorities, fearing that such cooperation could make them targets of hostile attacks.
Event
Balkans and Black Sea
Security and Defense
NATO
Working meeting between representatives of the Sofia Security Forum and the Embassy of the Republic of Yemen
On September 21, 2026, a working meeting took place between Dr. Ivo Tsekov, a senior analyst at the Sofia Security Forum, and H.E. Ahmed Shammer, Chargé d'Affaires of the Embassy of the Republic of Yemen in Sofia.
Event
Global Challenges
Bulgarian Foreign Policy
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS IN SOUTH-EAST EUROPE: THE WAY AHEAD
The Sofia Security Forum and the Media Program South East Europe of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation organized on 11 of December 2025 a regional conference to exchange knowledge, identify gaps, and chart a path forward for building stronger, more coherent, and more resilient Strategic communications ecosystems in SEE. In an age of rapid digital transformation, geopolitical volatility, and intensified information warfare, strategic communications (StratCom) has become an indispensable component of national resilience, democratic governance, and regional stability. Countries of South-East Europe (SEE) face a unique combination of challenges: low public trust in institutions, fragmented media environments, disinformation campaigns, and limited inter-institutional coordination. While progress has been made driven by EU, NATO, and donor-supported initiatives strategic communications capacities remain uneven, and often reactive rather than proactive. The conference launched a long-term project aimed at strengthening the role of Strategic Communications in SEE to overcome the above problems.
Event
Global Challenges
Balkans and Black Sea
"STRENGTHENING SECURITY AND RESILIENCE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION"
The Sofia Security Forum and the Embassy of Denmark organized a meeting-discussion with the participation of representatives of the embassies of the EU and NATO member states on security in the Black Sea region. The latest analysis of the Sofia Security Forum and the Romanian New Strategy Center "STRENGTHENING SECURITY AND RESILIENCE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION: Reflections from the Sofia Workshop (19 September 2025)" was presented. Participants discussed the risks and threats in the region and ways to deal with them, as well as the role of NATO and the EU in the region.
Event
Balkans and Black Sea
European Union
NATO
EU TECHNOLOGICAL AUTONOMY. STRATEGIES, FUNDING, AND IMPLEMENTATION
The international conference “Technological Autonomy of the EU: Strategies, Funding, and Implementation,” organized by the Sofia Security Forum and the Embassy of the Kingdom of Spain in Sofia, was held on September 24 at the Central Military Club. The forum brought together representatives of Bulgarian institutions, business, academia, and the diplomatic community. The event aimed to highlight the strategic importance of the EU’s technological autonomy and to foster cross-sector debate on the key challenges and opportunities in this field. The conference was opened by Yordan Bozhilov, President of the Sofia Security Forum; Miguel Alonso Berrio, Ambassador of Spain to Bulgaria; and Martin Danovski, Deputy Minister of Innovation and Growth. The keynote address by Prof. Velizar Shalamanov provided an in-depth perspective on maintaining NATO’s technological edge within the broader context of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy. The first panel, “Strategic Visions for the EU’s Technological Development,” featured Luis Moya (INDRA, EU Defence Division) and Prof. Boyan Mednikarov, representing the Naval Academy and EnduroSat. Moderated by Dr. Monika Panayotova, university lecturer and Vice President of the Sofia Security Forum, the discussion explored innovation ecosystems, regulatory alignment, and public–private partnerships. The second panel, “From Policy to Practice: Turning Strategies into Reality,” focused on defense technological autonomy and security innovation, with contributions from Gonzalo León Serrano (Foundation for Defence and Security Technologies) and Dr. Borislav Bankov (NATO Testing Centre, GATE Institute). The panel was moderated by Yordan Bozhilov. Discussions in both sessions addressed practical issues, technical challenges, and emerging threats, while also presenting innovative and promising solutions—including the “democratization” of space through small satellites and the need to improve not only technologies but also supporting infrastructure. Speakers repeatedly emphasized that NATO’s existing mechanisms and instruments in the fields of security and defense should be adapted and leveraged by the European Union. Building entirely new, independent European structures would require considerable time—a resource the EU cannot afford in today’s dynamic and unstable international environment. This underscored the urgency of closer coordination between European and Euro-Atlantic institutions, alongside targeted investments in strategic technologies and infrastructure. The conference drew strong interest and active engagement from the audience. Participants posed insightful, analytically rich questions that enriched the exchange of ideas and turned the event into a significant contribution to the European debate on technological autonomy and strategic resilience.
Event
Cyber Security and New Technologies
European Union
THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE BLACK SEA AND BULGARIA - ROMANIA COOPERATION FOR THE PROTECTION OF OFFSHORE INFRASTRUCTURE
On 19 September, the Sofia Security Forum (SSF) - Bulgaria, together with the New Strategy Center (NSC) - Romania, organized in Sofia a workshop dedicated to “The EU Strategy for the Black Sea 2025 and the Bulgaria-Romania cooperation for protection of the offshore infrastructure.” The event gathered Bulgarian and Romanian officials from the government and a number of ministries, security experts, and representatives of energy companies, engaged in offshore exploration and infrastructure projects. The debate highlighted that the Black Sea has become a frontline for both conventional and hybrid challenges. Participants drew attention to the growing risks to critical infrastructure of diverse nature — from drifting mines and unmanned systems, to cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and the disruption of navigation routes under the guise of military drills. These threats were discussed as not only a direct consequence of Russia’s war against Ukraine, but a long-term factor shaping the security in the region. The speakers noted that both the Han Asparuh block in Bulgaria and the Neptun Deep block in Romania illustrate the stakes: offshore resources can provide energy independence for the two countries, but also can create new vulnerabilities that require joint risk assessments, interoperable monitoring systems, and the ability to respond quickly to crises at sea. The need to integrate EU initiatives — including the forthcoming Maritime Security Hub — with national capabilities was highlighted as a crucial step for protecting cables, platforms, and energy corridors. From the Bulgarian perspective, the discussions emphasized that securing the Black Sea is not only a matter of regional solidarity, but a core national interest. Once exploration at the Han Asparuh block advances, Bulgaria has the potential to fully meet its domestic gas needs and to contribute to regional supply. To achieve this securely, participants pointed that its of crucial importance to improve coordination between civilian and military authorities, to enhance the port and coastal infrastructure, investing in countermeasures and technologies for surveillance. The Sofia Security Forum will continue working on the analyses of the risks and threats in the Black Sea with the aim of searching for workable solutions at national and regional level as well as within NATO and EU. We will continue organizing events, offering a platform where decision-makers and experts can develop practical solutions for resilience. Strengthening the Bulgarian-Romanian cooperation in the Black Sea is key not only for the protection of offshore energy infrastructure, but also for ensuring that the region contributes to the EU’s long-term energy security and strategic autonomy, in line with the EU Black Sea Strategy 2025 and will be in the focus of the activities of the Sofia Security Forum.
Event
Bulgarian Foreign Policy
Balkans and Black Sea
Security and Defense
European Union